Hysteria spreads as China first blockades, and later invades, one of Taiwan’s frontline islands. Some citizens race to evacuate, disinformation abounds, riots occur, and others pledge to fight for their homeland. These are all elements in a Netflix political thriller television series called Zero Day.
The ten-part series is due to hit screens this year, and already the trailer has generated strong reaction. Some consider it an authentic portrayal, others criticise it for generating panic.
However, Zero Day’s creator Hsin-mei Cheng told CNN, “Frankly, everyone has their own fears and imaginations about the war, but in our daily lives, many avoid it or even pretend it doesn’t exist.” She thinks many Taiwanese have grown de-sensitised to Chinese threats. “As the crisis looms larger over the past two years, I think it’s about time we take a hard look at it and open this Pandora’s box.”
Of course, it is difficult to conceive why China would risk all to invade Taiwan. It does not make sense to outsiders.
The same could be said of Tsar Putin: “Surely he wouldn’t attack Ukraine,” many said. Yet he did. Autocrats exist in echo chambers, where sycophants dare not give honest assessments, and the same is true of Emperor Xi. None of us understand the calculus running through his head, as he seeks to carve a legacy as China’s greatest ever leader.
In many ways, this war against Taiwan has already begun. In addition to grey-zone tactics, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) parries and thrusts with provocative aircraft and warship intrusions. Beijing is already prosecuting cognitive warfare to sway Taiwanese public opinion.
China is also working to recruit ‘allies’ internationally too. For example, former Australian prime minister Paul Keating recently called Taiwan “Chinese real estate”. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was shocked at Keating’s “dismissive view of Taiwan”. It added, “Our freedom-loving people are determined to defend our sovereignty and democracy. We’ll never allow our nation to be turned into another Hong Kong or attacked like Ukraine by an autocrat!”
However, there are questions about Taiwan’s determination. A tangible will to resist is as important as the military assets Taiwan possesses. Ukraine demonstrated that, if you want the world’s help, you must dig in and fight fiercely.
A report published by Taiwan Politics, a University of Texas online journal, concluded, “Taiwan has been able to live in peace, not because of the kindness of the Chinese Communist Party, but because of two conditions – the strong resolve to fight among the Taiwanese population, and the security promises made by the U.S.. As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait … we should prepare for the possibility of war, and show strong resolve to defend Taiwan, as it’s crucial to help us avoid war, deter it or, if war does happen, achieve victory.”
Yet the same report found that, from September 2021 to March 2023, the percentage of Taiwanese respondents “confident” or “very confident” that Taiwan’s military could defend the country dropped from 58 percent to 43 percent. When asked, “If China really invades Taiwan by force, would you be willing to fight to defend Taiwan?”, 75 percent of respondents in September 2021 said they would be very or somewhat willing, but this level had dropped to 68 percent by August 2023.
Nonetheless, there are positive signs that Taiwan is stiffening its posture. In early August, Taiwan announced a six percent defence budget increase to $19.8 billion. However, this is less than a tenth of China’s 2024 expenditure of $231.4 billion. Taiwan also reinstated one-year conscription this year, up from a four-month period, and hoped to enrol 9,100 conscripts in 2024.
The USA is critical to Taiwan’s defence, but Taipei’s strongest backer maintains strategic ambiguity over whether it would help counter a PLA invasion. Furthermore, a $19.7 billion backlog of U.S. arms sales to Taipei remains stagnant as deliveries are delayed.
An August poll asked Americans whether the USA should militarily counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, regardless of cost. Only 11 percent strongly agreed and 19 percent somewhat agreed. The remainder were neutral or disagreed. With such tepid American support, especially if Trump is re-elected, it underscores how Taiwan’s best strategy is to deter China from trying to invade in the first place.
As George Washington said, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”
Trailer Zero Day:
by Gordon Arthur
