The Shangri-La Dialogue laid bare China’s undeniable support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, as well as Beijing’s blatant hypocrisy when it says it “supports the policy of territorial integrity and sovereignty”.
Last October Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government led a series of study groups asking “Is the War in Ukraine Distracting the U.S. From the Much Larger Challenge China Poses in Asia.”
“China has been modernising its armed forces while the United States failed to do so to the same degree,” said one of the roundtable participants. “Now, the war in Ukraine is distracting the United States further from this task. The power of U.S. deterrence is also in decline, which may lead adversaries to be more adventurous and destabilising.”
Are these two theatres distinctly separate challenges for Washington or are they inextricably linked? Do the disruptions in U.S. military support for Ukraine create doubts about America’s ability to simultaneously compete with the People’s Republic of China (PRC)?
Recent developments suggest the two conflicts are not the mutually exclusive events that some would claim and are in reality inseparable.
Singapore’s annual Shangri-La Dialogue Asia-Pacific Security Forum (31 May to 2 June), now in its 21st year, showed this forum is no longer exclusively focused on security in Asia. It is now a crossroads for all nations playing a role in the war in Ukraine.
On Day Two, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted the European defence ministers present “in this room today are not here because I invited them. They are here because they have interests in this region.”
Just how intertwined interests of Asian nations are with the war in Ukraine became clear once Austin finished his address – the first of the Saturday’s proceedings – and the Q&A segment began.
One of the questioners was Cao Yanzhong, a PRC People’s Liberation Army PLA Senior Colonel and a researcher at the Institute of War Studies of the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences. His barbed inquiry was “the eastern border expansion of NATO has led to the Ukraine crisis.” What implications do you think the strengthening of the U.S. alliances system in the Asia-Pacific will have on this region’s security and stability?” – implying the U.S. would be the guilty party if a conflict breaks out in Asia.
Austin did not immediately address the question, but instead told Cao “I respectfully disagree with your point that the expansion of NATO caused the Ukraine crisis.”
He was then interrupted as the entire hall spontaneously applauded his slap down of the PLA Colonel’s posturing. It bears pointing out this enthusiastic approval of the Secretary’s contradiction of the PLA representative was in front of an Asia-Pacific audience – not a European security forum.
Austin then put on record his version of how the war in Ukraine began. “The Ukraine crisis obviously was caused because [Russian President] Mr. [Vladimir] Putin made a decision to unlawfully invade his neighbour,” continued Austin. “He [Putin] assumed that he could very quickly roll over his neighbour and annex the country – that was two-plus years ago. He has not achieved any of his strategic objectives to this point.”
The importance of the Shangri-La event to the Ukraine conflict was then amplified later that day. Rumours began circulating Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky would arrive that night to make a previously unscheduled address Sunday, 2 June.
Zelensky’s appearance had a dual purpose. The first was to include Singapore on a global whistlestop tour to promote the now recently-concluded 15–16 June Summit on Peace in Ukraine – held in the Bürgenstock Resort in Switzerland.
This shuttle diplomacy had the desired effect, in that 78 of the 90-some nations represented signed a communique stating: “respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty … can and will serve as a basis for achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”
It was a demand for Russia to return Ukrainian territory illegally invaded and occupied in its 2014 and 2022 invasions. It was also a direct challenge to the conditions for a cease-fire laid out by Putin on the eve of the Swiss summit. His positions were seen as worse than one-sided by Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, who characterised Putin’s terms a “complete sham” and “offensive to common sense”.
Zelensky was even more direct when he told Italy’s Sky TG24 television on 14 June, “these messages are ultimatum messages. It’s the same thing Hitler did, when he said, ‘give me a part of Czechoslovakia and it’ll end here’.”
Bigger Trouble From Big China
But the other, longer-term goal of Zelensky’s message to the Shangri-La forum was to highlight the damage done by the PRC’s support for Russia’s war machine.
His morning speech contained subtle and indirect references to Beijing supplying Russia’s military and defence industry: “We know many Asian nations do not support Ukraine with weaponry,” he said (not mentioning the Asian nations supporting Russia with deliveries of weaponry). “We have never pressured them, never demanded it. We always ask for, first and foremost, political support, support of our people, civilians, our children.”
But his afternoon press conference was “first and foremost, due to China’s support for Russia [which means] the war will last longer. And that is bad for the whole world,” he began.
Beijing engages in blatant hypocrisy as it “declares it supports the policy of territorial integrity and sovereignty and states that officially,” he said. But “you cannot say that ‘we accept sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine’ and at the same time be on the side of the country that violates the principle of the UN Charter and violates the principle of sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
Zelensky also crticised Beijing’s attempts to sabotage the 15-16 June peace summit. “It seems to me that to disrupt the summit, to make steps to weaken the representation of leaders and countries, to do everything so that certain leaders do not arrive at the peace summit, to push them, pressure them.
“This definitely does not bring peace closer. That is not only supporting Russia – that is basically support of the war,” and “Russia – using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also – does everything to disrupt the peace summit.
“Regrettably, it is unfortunate, that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin.”
Asia’s Military Lifeline To Moscow
Beijing’s assistance to its Russian neighbour now includes more than just running diplomatic interference. Leaked U.S. Intelligence reports assess Russia is entirely dependent on Beijing for vital defence production inputs such as microchips and other electronic components to keep its weapons running.
Examinations of recent Russian-made weapons confirm Russian missile seekers are using increasingly more Chinese-produced microelectronics in place of U.S. and E.U.-sourced components. Russian Glide bombs used to attack civilian targets utilise electronics shipped through the PRC, Thailand and Turkey.
Beijing officially denies it is providing this kind of assistance. But military-applicable goods like heavy machinery to dig trenches, cargo-carrying trucks and precision, numerically-controlled machine tools are sourced exclusively from the PRC.
Other Chinese goods with direct military applications are routed via Kyrgyzstan. Sales of Chinese ballbearings to Kyrgyzstan in 2023 exceeded 2021 numbers by 2550 percent.
Other intelligence documents estimate the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has “unlawfully transferred dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions to aid Russia’s war effort.” Their payback: advanced Russian military technologies for Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, submarine design and satellite programmes.
How Asia Impacts on NATO
Concerns about the PRC’s role in the Ukraine war were front-and-centre at the 9-11 July NATO 75th Anniversary summit in Washington, DC. Six months ago, while in the ROC, outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated “What happens in Europe matters for Asia. What happens in Asia matters for Europe and today it’s Ukraine – tomorrow, it can be Taiwan.”
Beijing’s belligerence on full display in Singapore by the PRC Minister of Defence confirms the worst fears by the NATO Chief. Admiral Dong Jun darkly vowed Beijing “will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds. Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction.”
At a later 17 June address at the Wilson Center in Washington, the NATO chief again emphasised how much of what happens in either region directly effects the other.
“If President Putin prevails in Ukraine, it is not only tragedy for the Ukrainians. It sends a very clear message to President Putin, but also President Xi, that when they use military force, when they violate international law, they achieve what they want.
“So, if you’re afraid of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea or Taiwan, then you should be very concerned about Ukraine.” As testimony, he sad, “I met the Prime Minister of Japan not too many months ago, and his message: what happens in Ukraine today can happen in Southeast Asia tomorrow.”
by Reuben F. Johnson
