China’s defence exports have been growing, but quality and political goals conflict potential customers.
China’s defence industry has seen significant growth and development over the past few decades. It has rapidly transformed from being heavily reliant on foreign technology and imports to becoming a major player in the global arms market and a central pillar of the country’s strategic military capabilities.
Like many other contemporary military industrial powers, China’s goal for its nascent defence industry in the 1950s was eventual self-reliance and subsequently global exports. However, without a traditional industry to base this on, it attempted to lay the foundations by acquiring foreign equipment and subsystems, initially from the Soviet Union and re-engineering these to address knowledge gaps.
These early efforts were derailed by the isolation imposed by the Cultural Revolution and the subsequent freeze in Sino-Soviet relations. As a consequence of this unfavourable trinity of political chaos, underfunding and limited access to new foreign technology, earlier indigenously produced platforms and subsystems often suffered from long lead times in research and development (R&D) and poor quality control.
However, this began to change from the early 1990s when China’s political and military elite made clear their displeasure with industry’s inability to produce world-class defence products and initiated sweeping reforms across the board.
Through these painstaking reforms, China possesses the Indo-Pacific region’s largest military industrial complex. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)’s latest Top 100 Arms Producing and Military Services Companies index, six Chinese companies were placed in the top 20 positions alone in 2022. Three of these, the state-owned China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco), AVIC, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) are even ranked within the top 10 group at seventh, eighth, and ninth respectively.
SIPRI also noted in a separate report that China had by 2023 become the fourth largest defence exporter of the world, behind the United States, France, and Russia, and overtaking Germany. It had accounted for 5.8 percent of the global export market between 2019 and 2023 with major arms sales to 40 countries during this period, but with more than half of these exports going to three countries – Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand.
“Chinese defence industry has grown from strength to strength over the past few decades and is now a compelling reason for advanced nations,” Feng Zhu, a senior researcher at a state-sponsored think tank, told AMR. Feng also noted that China’s traditional customers have been African and Middle Eastern countries in the past, but has now expanded to more regions in South and Southeast Asia.
“This growing interest in Chinese defence equipment is a reflection of the growing maturity of its industry as well as the nation’s improving relationships with many countries, those that have benefited from the Belt and Road initiative,” added Feng.
Key exports – military aircraft
AVIC subsidiary Guizhou Aviation Industries Corporation (GAIC) received its first export order for the indigenously developed FTC-2000G advanced jet trainer (AJT)/light-attack aircraft in April 2020.
According to AVIC, an order was placed earlier that year by an undisclosed Southeast Asian country with delivery of the first tranche of aircraft expected to be take place in 2021, although it did not go into details about the contract value or the number of aircraft on order. It was only in late 2022 when the customer was identified as Myanmar after images of the FTC-2000G in Myanmar Air Force colours emerged on social media.
The FTC-2000G is a variant of the GAIC’s FTC-2000 and is being marketed as an affordable multipurpose platform that can replace legacy Soviet and early Chinese-made light attack and trainer aircraft. It also features a centreline reconnaissance pod for improved intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) performance. Sudan earlier acquired six FTC-2000 aircraft, with first delivery made on 16 May 2018. Other Chinese-made AJTs/light attack aircraft have also been exported in recent years, with Zambia acquiring six Hongdu Aviation Industry Group (HAIG) L-15 aircraft in 2016.
The acquisition of the FTC-2000G deepens Myanmar’s reliance on China for military aircraft, with the Southeast Asian country already having acquired up to 16 Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder Block II multirole combat aircraft and could well bolster its growing fleet with more Chinese technology.
In particular, the JF-17 Thunder joint development is another highlight of China’s defence export success, led by AVIC CAC subsidiary and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and subsidised by Pakistani funds. The collaboration was reasonably successful, with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) procuring Block I and II single-seat JF-17 and two-seat JF-17Bs, while securing exports to Nigeria and Myanmar. Azerbaijan and Iran have also expressed strong interest in the type.
The PAF also ordered a batch of 36 CAC J-10CE multirole combat aircraft with the latest delivery in January 2024, with reports suggesting that the service could order another 14 aircraft. The J-10CE is the export variant of the in-service J-10C aircraft in use by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The J-10C features a new active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar of unknown designation, improved avionics including a new datalink for the PL-15 beyond visual range anti-air missile (BVRAAM) although it is understood that China has yet to clear release of the missile to Pakistan.
Key exports – uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV)
China has emerged as the world’s leading military UAV exporter, according to SIPRI statistics. According to the institute’s arms transfer database, Chinese manufacturers have delivered over 280 weaponised UAVs to 17 countries – including Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – between 2013 and 2023. In contrast, the US delivered only around 12 of these during the same period, and to only two countries – France and the UK.
The most successful example of Chinese armed UAV export would be CASC’s Cai Hong-4 (CH-4) medium altitude long endurance (MALE) UAV. In September 2022 the company announced that it had secured a follow-on export contract for its CH-4 worth over US$100 million from an undisclosed customer.
Qiu Haitao, Deputy General Manager of the Second Department of CASC’s export arm Aerospace Long March International (ALIT), said at the contract signing ceremony in Beijing that the CH-4 has undertaken a wide range of missions for its users since its introduction to the market in 2016.
More than 30 CH-4 UAVs – valued at US$700 million – have been delivered, according to a citation released by the CCP government. More recently, the Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) acquired an undisclosed number of CH-4 UAVs which have been equipped with satellite communications systems to extend their operating range to 2,000km. The TNI-AU is believed to be the first Southeast Asian air force to possess an armed UAV capability, having received AR-2 precision guided missiles for the CH-4B fleet in April 2021.
Pakistan also received at least five CH-4 UAVs, according to official export-import (EXIM) logs released by the government. The UAVs, which were delivered ALIT, arrived in the South Asian country in January 2021. It is unclear, however, which variant of the CH-4 was ordered by Islamabad, and whether this delivery is part of a larger UAV order or just a limited acquisition of this UAV type, possibly for testing.
User experiences with the type appear to be mixed, with Iraq earlier putting its CH-4 fleet into storage for unknown reasons around 2017. The US-led coalition reported in 2019 that Iraq possessed at least 10 CH-4s but that only one was fully mission capable because of maintenance problems. It subsequently reported that the UAV fleet had been grounded due to contractual problems.
CASC also appears to have secured its first international customer for its domestically developed Cai Hong 5 (CH-5) MALE UAV, according to imagery circulating on Chinese-language social media websites around late 2023.
These include an image with several unidentified officials standing in front of a large screen with the words “Closing Ceremony and “CH-5 Training Program” with the national flags of Iraq and China displayed prominently underneath. Another image showed what appeared to be a “Certificate of Completion” for “successful completion of the CH-5 UAV System Theoretical, Practical and Flight Training Courses” dated 23 September 2023 and endorsed by Poly Technologies, CHUAV Science & Technology Co Ltd, and the Military Attache Office of the Iraqi Embassy At China.
It is not known how many CH-5 UAVs were acquired by Iraq, although the US-led coalition, the Multi-National Force-Iraq, noted in the past that it had observed over 10 CH-4 UAVs in Iraqi service.
Key exports – land systems
Meanwhile, Thailand has emerged as one of the top recipients of Chinese military vehicles with its acquisition of main battle tanks (MBTs), amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), as well as 8×8 armoured personnel carriers (APCs).
Thailand first indicated its interest to acquire around 34 Norinco VN-1 wheeled APCs in June 2017 for approximately US$2.6 million. The VN-1 is the export variant of the PLA’s ZBL-09. In the APC configuration, the VN1 can accommodate up to 10 personnel: driver, commander, gunner and seven fully equipped dismounts. The vehicle can be fitted with a range of weapons including a 30mm automatic cannon and the HJ-73D anti-tank guided missile (ATGM).
It is understood that the Royal Thai Army (RTA) received the final batch of 39 VN-1 APCs in May 2021, following delivery of the first batch of 34 vehicles in 2019 and the second batch of 39 vehicles in 2020. It is not known which specific variants were ordered, although it is believed that most would be configured as troop carriers and would be assigned to the 10th Cavalry Battalion at Suriyaphong Camp and the 7th Cavalry Battalion at Phichai Dab Hak Camp.
The RTA also possesses around 50 Norinco VT-4 MBTs, with the final batch of 10 MBTs delivered in 2019. Thailand is the first export customer for the VT4, which is also known as the MBT-3000, and was developed specifically for the export market. The vehicle has a combat weight of 52 tonnes and is powered by a 1,200hp engine. Its armament includes a 125mm smoothbore main gun, a coaxial 7.62mm machine gun, and a roof-mounted 12.7mm machine gun.
Norinco also provided Thailand with a repair and maintenance centre to support the VT4 MBTs and VN-1 APCs.
Bangladesh is another key customer of Chinese military vehicles, having acquired the Norinco VT-5 light tank as the type’s first export customer. Considered one of the most modern light tanks in the world, the VT-5 is operated by a three-person crew comprising a driver, commander, and gunner. The tank is armed with a 105mm main gun that is fed by an autoloader, and can be optionally equipped with composite armour or explosive reactive armour (ERA) for improved survivability.
The Bangladesh Ministry of Defence announced in December 2019 that it had ordered the VT-5 tanks, although it did not provide specifics. However, SIPRI had noted that Bangladesh ordered 44 tanks which were delivered by November 2022.
Key exports – naval systems
China is expected to continue its success in the naval export market, with a growing customer base that already includes Malaysia, Pakistan, and Thailand. These countries have in the past decade ordered high-end naval platforms such as multirole frigates and littoral mission vessels, amphibious landing ships, as well as diesel-electric submarines.
The export drive is underpinned by the CCP government’s commitment to eliminate corruption within its national shipbuilding industry. The effort resulted in the merger of the two largest shipbuilders in China.
“In 2021 the two largest shipbuilders in China, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), finalised a merger to form a new entity operating under the name CSSC,” said SIPRI, noting that CSSC was also the world’s largest military shipbuilder in the same year.
Pakistan is once again China’s top customer for naval systems, having ordered a variety of underwater and surface platforms in the past decade. In 2018, it ordered eight S20 diesel-electric submarines – subsequently designated the Hangor-class – based on the PLA Navy’s Yuan-class (Type 039A-series) design, with the first four boats to be built by the Wuchang Shipbuilding subsidiary of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and deliveries commencing to the Pakistan Navy from 2022. The remainder will be built in Pakistan by the Karachi Shipbuilding and Engineering Works (KSEW), with the boats in service by around 2028. The first Hangor-class submarine was launched at Wuchang Shipbuilding’s Shangliu base in Wuhan in April 2024.
According to CSIC, the S20 platforms are fully indigenous designs that exploit the company’s experience from developing the Yuan-class submarines, which were first launched at its Wuchang Shipyard in Wuhan in May 2004. These boats are believed to cost between $500-600 million each, with associated technology transfer as well as the establishment of a submarine training centre at KSEW.
Moreover, China delivered the final two Type 054A/P frigates to the Pakistani Navy, which were handed over and commissioned into service as the Tughril-class at CSSC’s Hudong Zhonghua Shipyard in Shanghai in May 2023. The two frigates, PNS Tippu Sultan and PNS Shahjahan, are part of a four-ship contract awarded in 2018. According to CSSC, the Type 054A/P is the largest and most advanced warship China has ever exported.
The Type 054A/P guided missile frigate is one of the latest multirole frigates developed by CSSC, based on the Type 054 design operated by the PLAN, and is armed with the latest Chinese naval weapons such as the CM-302 surface-to-surface missile and LY-80 surface-to-air missile The type is also equipped with an advanced anti-submarine warfare suite.
Conclusion
China’s defence industry is a critical component of the country’s national strategy to establish itself as a global power. The accelerated pace of modernisation, substantial investments in cutting-edge technology, and an expanding footprint in global arms sales underscore its ambitions.
However, despite its growing prominence in the global arms market, China’s defence industry continues to face several challenges. The first is quality and reliability concerns. Chinese-made military equipment has often faced criticism for its perceived lower quality and reliability compared to Western-made systems.
Moreover, some countries may be reluctant to purchase Chinese military equipment due to human rights concerns, China’s arms exports have been criticised for contributing to human rights abuses in recipient countries, such as Myanmar and Sudan, leading to calls for stricter controls on Chinese arms exports to prevent their use in conflicts.
Finally, China faces stiff competition from other more established arms exporters, from the United States and Europe, which are more aligned with the interests of many democratic countries around the world. Despite these challenges, China has continued to pursue export success by offering competitive pricing, attractive financing options, and a diverse range of arms and equipment to customers unable to afford or unwilling to consider Western offerings.
by JR Ng
